Underwhelmed by one year of BJP’s government

It has been over a year since BJP formed its first full majority government.  And if one were to step back to look into this one year, one is underwhelmed by the performance of the government.  Now before I am branded as another die-hard critic who sees only the nefarious and amoral in all that the new government has done. Let me clarify one thing, I am and continue to be one of the biggest supporter of Narendra Modi. As founding member of an organization that played a vital part in ensuring Narendra Modi’s victory, I along with others have toiled hard to convince people to support Narendra Modi. Infact, it gives me pride to say that, we started campaigning for Modi in June 2013, when even the BJP had not even appointed him as the campaign chief in the Goa conference and where the established opinion was that the likelihood of Narendra Modi becoming PM candidate was as unlikely as India winning the next Football world cup. Further even though we spent our time and money in galvanizing across 2 states, hundreds of towns and thousands of villages, we at the culmination of our goal dissolved the very organization and got back to our normal lives. Hence it is the voice of someone who has staked a lot on Narendra Modi that I claim that I am underwhelmed.

Also neither I am those who had unrealistic expectations from this government. I understand how economics work and Rome was never built in a day. I am not demanding my Bullet trains today as I know that it take’s years to build one nor am I asking India to become a developed nation in the next five years. I clearly understand that things take time and effort to succeed. Therefore the question arises is why do I feel underwhelmed by the government’s performance. Given that it is a true fact that government has minimized and eradicated corruption at the highest levels, has given rigour to foreign ministry languishing since the days of Indira Gandhi. The government has done many things right from modernization and importance given to defence sector to socio-economic policies like the insurance schemes and others. The Swach Bharat Abhinayan is truly commendable and if it succeeds it would be truly transformational.

No, it is not because that I don’t see the positive developments in the last one year nor is it because that I doubt their intentions that I feel underwhelmed. No, not at all. The main reason, I feel underwhelmed is the progress made on the economic and development front. I see clear lack of rigour and drive towards development, economic reform and rejuvenation. My main grouse, when Narendra Modi set us a target of 272+, the so called “intellectual” opinion of this country sniggered at our unrealistic and quixotic goal. Even the staunchest of Narendra Modi’s supporter never believed we will win more than 272 seats to become the first non congress party to win majority on its own. We succeeded in achieving the same precisely because we set ourselves hard and brutal targets and strove with determination, single-minded focus on achieving it and nothing distracted us on our path to victory. Today, I see a lack of similar sentiment in the way government is approaching matters, from GST to land ordinance bill, from Labour reforms to relegating useless laws and regulations.

What the government has done in the last one years on the reform and development agenda has not be unique or special. It did not a Narendra Modi to do it and any sensible government could have done the same. If BJP had in its wisdom chosen Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley or any other so called secularly acceptable PM candidate, BJP would still have likely formed the next government in a coalition of myriad partners. This coalition government of Arun Jaitley would have easily achieved what this government has achieved in the last one year. Then the question arises is why has the government till now done what any mediocre Arun Jaitley government could have done with coalition government. Why did hundreds of thousands of youth organize themselves spend time and money in electing Narendra Modi has prime minister with a full majority if all that could have been achieved would have been achieved without us doing so. When I look back, I remember the volunteers with whom I interacted who were ready to spend even their meagre earnings to campaign for Narendra Modi and I feel disheartened that all their efforts have not mattered as we ended up appointing a Jaitley government rather than Narendra Modi led one.

Hence I urge our Prime Minister to relook at the last one year critically and understand the tremendous effort of the volunteers who are all looking for the same single minded determination, focus towards achieving unrealistic goals. To display drive and rigour in achieving necessary actions to reform and deregulate the mess created by the 65 years of misrule and set us up for double digit growth for the next two decades. Enough of testing waters solutions, half-hearted attempts, misaligned thrusts and working on “consensus solutions”. I would like to end my case by saying

 “Bas Karo Jaitley Sarkar ab Chahiye Modi Sarkar “

What China wants from India?? - Untangling the Liberal narrative

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on his three day visit to China, the question that needs to be correctly asked is “What does China really WANT from India??” Before we attempt to answer this question, it is important to understand “What China does NOT WANT from India??” This question is critical to untangle the myth perpetuated by Left liberal intelligentsia and “secular” establishment about Chinese intentions about India.  The myth about Indian Chinese friendship, the repeated calls of shared heritage of two ancient civilizations working towards a stable global order while cooperating closely economically, politically and culturally.  This is in-fact a repackaged version of Nehruvian “India China Bhai Bhai” philosophy that led to historic defeat in 1962.  

What China does NOT WANT from India is peaceful and cooperative friendship between two equal partners. Now before our hyperventilating Liberal friends jump and accuse us of war mongering and retort that China is not currently in a war with us. Let me clarify that the operative word here is equal. China is not like the rabid minded Pakistan intent on continuous warfare with us. However China never intends to consider us as an equal partner, anything but that they consider us as infinitely inferior and subservient race.

Yet, why does the left liberal intelligentsia perpetuate the myth of Chinese Indian friendship. They do because there are three different set of people all part of this group who have stake in perpetuating this myth.

The first set is the establishment itself, the ancien regime of political-bureaucratic leviathan that has characterized our governance for the past 65 years. The motive for them to propagate the myth is to cover the huge governance bankruptcy under their establishment. In the decades since Independence, this establishment has fretted away critical years in corruption, nepotism and short sighted policies instead of building strategic capacity. Similar to the typical Delhi attitude of looking at one’s near abode and thinking only of personal advancement and aggrandizement, officials and political masters responsible for Chinese policy have for too long focused on promotions, departmental feuds, ego battles and making money out of everything including toilet seats.  Hence today they have NO CLUE about China. They really don’t know what Chinese think economically, politically or militarily and what their objectives are. Therefore to cover their sheer incompetence they proceed with blustering their way out. As typified by our former foreign minister’s response to Chinese incursions as mere acne on the face. They shout out from all available media that everything is fine and there is nothing amiss and that we need to continue this “exalted” friendship with China.

The second set consists of the “Hippie”, idealistic, utopian, day dreaming crowd of left liberals. This set typified by our usual AAP supporters believe in the global order of Human beings. To them, the world is harmonious collection of people who need to live peacefully with each other by sharing and giving and caring and so on…. Similar to their economic and governance philosophy, their foreign policy is centred on the core belief that every human being is absolutely good at heart and intent on global wellness. Now however wishful this might seem, we know that this is not true when we look at the cold reality of our existence. Just like how organized communes and Mohalla shabhas fail in our real world, so does this Utopian foreign policy. However this left liberal set, who consists the largest among the three sets utilize every channel to call out for peace. To them the ideas of real politick and strategic building of capacity are horrors that disrupt their childish fascination to achieve the cartoonish world of “knob the builder” or “Dora the explorer”. Therefore they will like hugging trees to prevent development will do all that is possible to disrupt anything that can be considered “war like”.

Finally, the third and most dangerous set are the set of people who are completely against the very idea of India. This includes the Maoists, their sympathizers, JNU crowd and other anti-national elements including Medha Patkar, John Dayal and others of the NGO crowd. This set secretly wishes for disruption and destruction of India itself and Balkanization into multiple entities. Their desire is driven by ideological anchorage to Mao China, similar to Kolkattans who celebrated the Chinese advance in 1962. They are actively sponsored and device many devious ways to propagate their goal. And hindering all matters of developing capabilities to counter react to Chinese designs is foremost part of their strategy. Hence they will try to blind us all in to believing Chinese friendship and good intentions and warnings us not to look at gift horse by its mouth.

Given that we have now untangled the web of lies spread by left liberals about what China wants from India. Let us look at what they really WANT from us.  There are two main driving factors to understand this.

One, China wants to dominate the world. This is fact that is now known by most of the global sane population. Here again lets us not be dissuade by false arguments about retard-ness of the above statement as it is foolish for China to engage in World War III.  The fact is that the entire premise China doesn’t want to dominate the world because they don’t want global conflict is again a product of childish thinking. As detailed out in the book “The Hundred year Marathon” by Michael Phillsbury, China wants to achieve dominance in the world by replacing USA as the pre-eminent power of 21^st Century. This would entail developing economic, political and military might silently through stealth and mis-interpretation of intent.  China would like to then redesign global institutions and order in a framework of its liking. The principle drive for this is to reverse the humiliation of recent past under western imperialism and hark back to the glorious days of “Heaven’s Mandate”. 

Hence, for them any coupling of India and China is naturally insulting. The whole India China bracketing is unjust and illogical. The truth is that we are nowhere near China economically, politically or militarily, Our 65 years of left liberal establishment has hallowed us from within. They know this and they resent any attempt to equate us with them. Our previous establishment’s attempt to mask in the fake glory of being equal to China definitely instigates it to show the world what our place is.

Secondly, though China understands that India currently is nowhere near matching it. India still has the potential in next 50 years to seriously undermine Chinese order. This is because of the sheer weight of our numbers. Just like in the initial stages of WW2, inferior Russian forces were able to halt superior German forces by their huge and almost infinite size of army and land. India even today can in the next decade develop enough capability to make any Chinese intervention into a costly affair. It is only India and India alone that has in the future the potential to give Chinese a bloody nose if we get our act together.

Therefore, China really doesn’t want India to develop and acquire the potential and the capabilities. China doesn’t want to share its glory equally with India. China has not planned for the next hundred years displacing America to see India hitchhike its hard work to acquire place in the high table. No, China doesn’t want any of this. What they really WANT is for India to remain a third world country. Yes. That is what China really wants of us. Just like USA long neutralized potential competitors like Mexico or Brazil in its neighbourhoods to global lightweights. China would like India to be the same. To be eternally internal focused on domestic squabbles, dealing with myriad problems and never have the institutional and united will to stand up to it. 

Hence if we truly want India to be a superpower, to be counted among the developed nations of the global order, to have our voice matter, then it is time that we got out act right. Let us first get facts straight about true Chinese intentions and let us sort our putrid domestic mess left over by Nehru Gandhian establishment and focus our energy in building economic, political and military capacity.

However let us be aware of the ever existing Left liberal goebbelsian threat against our efforts for we need to cut and discard the cancerous tumour that has affiliated us for so long. 

Why Internet Hindus love Modi

Narendra Modi’s popularity among the internet population is well known. Various surveys and the cult like personality that is revered in the social media are good indicators of this fact. But why do Internet savvy Hindus disproportionately support Modi. What is that they find in his personality that makes them so vocal and aggressive in their support of Modi.

Various intellectuals (Libtards) have delved on this topic and have concluded on a variety of reasons for Modi’s popularity. But most of them according to me have missed understanding the driving factor for his huge support base among this specific population.

They quote, Modi’s no nonsense approach, his “quality of governance” and the “results of his work” (hypothetical in their opinion) is what attracts the young to him, youth who are always attracted to leaders who can take decisive actions and solve issues with a firm hand. Though there might be share of the young population who are attracted to Modi because of this, it doesn’t reflect the drive behind his hard core supporters. There are/were many CM’s and leaders who have delivered good governance, who took firm decisions, but none of them, resonate with the young as much as Modi does. There support base is definitely restricted to their respective states and rarely reaches out to a pan India audience.

Now the so called intellectuals argue that it is Modi’s effective PR machine that has enabled him to capitalize his “good governance” and “quality of governance” in reaching out to a wider audience. Thus he has been able to leverage his strengths to the hilt unlike the other CM’s who may have similar track records. This argument, I find is bordering on the ludicrous. Majority of the Internet Hindu population are keenly aware of their surroundings, they are well informed about global issues and their implications. Surely any effective PR machine cannot hoodwink this segment into making them follow Modi. Besides, CM’s like Chandra Babu Naidu and S.M Krishna have equally enjoyed/employed similar PR machinery to propagate their image as forward looking no nonsense technocrats, but do you find any pan India support or fan base for the same. Let alone winning elections, they might not be able to garner more than 10,000 followers on twitter. Therefore I can conclusively say that the so called “PR” reason is BS. I will concede that PR does help in reaching out effectively to the audience but never in winning over them.

Then finally there is the perverse reason spelled out by the more retarded segment of the intellectual population that Modi enjoys huge popularity with the Right oriented youth in India because he according to them was responsible for killing of thousands and hundreds of thousands of Muslims. What happened in Gujarat in 2002 is highly deplorable, and I am sure that except few marginal extremists, no rational person will support Modi, because they think he was responsible for the death of hundreds of people in the Gujarat riots of 2002. This is just a very sick and perverse argument that one gets into as a last resort especially by  intellectuals who have nothing else left to counter with.

Now after going through the reasons put forth by our intelligent brethren, let me put out my own humble reason for the tremendous popularity Modi enjoys across the country among the Internet savvy Hindu population (or according to Sagarika Ghose of CNN IBN, the Internet Hindus).

In my previous blog, I had elaborated on how a certain section of the population has a disproportionate control in setting the agenda for the country. These set of individuals who according to popular theory emanate from the great institutes of Delhi like the JNU, colleges like St. Stephens subscribe mostly to a retarded version of communist liberal ideology. They according to them represent and guard the idea of India. These are the same set of people who “are always thinking about the nation” while having no ***** clue about it. But this doesn’t stop them forcibly gulping down their stupid agenda on the nation (To get a better idea of how the Indian story has been shaped by such Individuals, I recommend reading “Durbar” by Tavleen Singh). And my hypothesis is that, these are the same people who are indirectly responsible for Modi’s rise in popularity.

These people claim to be morally and intellectually superior to the common man and their guidance in all matters must be religiously followed upon. They consider anyone outside their network to be fanatics, extremists and people who need to be condemned and suppressed from the onset. This is deeply insulting to any self respecting individual who is outside this so called network. And this is what drives the Internet Hindus to support Modi.

Modi is the anti thesis of everything that the retarded set of people believes in. He believes in Hinduism, he is proud of our ancient heritage, customs and practices. He doesn’t feel the need to mindlessly ape the western customs and traditions. He is confident about himself and also the potential of this Nation. He firmly believes that India could one day become the first nation among other developed nations.

This exactly what the left liberals despise of. They are anti Hindu, ashamed of our culture and believe that our customs and practices need to be abolished to oblivion. They would like India to become European in nature (remember how, these same people keep fretting on why BJP is not true centre right party). They are definitely not confident of the potential of the country and believe that salvation lies in becoming a third grade third world nation.

Therefore they have relentlessly targeted the Modi and his visions and ideology. This is the bone of contention between the Internet Hindus and the Intellectual population.

Internet Hindus like Modi and unlike the retarded intellectuals believe in our proud ancestry and firmly believe in the infinite potential in this country that can be harnessed to make India a progressive developed nation. Therefore when they see these intellectuals lampoon this idea of India and try to propagate their idiotic vision of India, they feel the need to counter this intellectual ideocracy. But sadly, they do not have similar power or hold over the governing mechanism of the country or have the required space in the main stream media to propagate their alternate vision.

Hence they have turned to Modi to become their proxy in their fight against the Libtard intellectuals. Modi who is the only person in the current context who has dared to take on the collective might of the intellectual society. Thus they have found the one leader who can take the battle to the enemy’s camp and win by playing according to his own ball game. They support Modi in order to demonstrate that their idea of India is the one the country needs. The more the intellectuals oppose Modi, the more vigorous the support for him grows. The more the intellectuals lampoon the Internet Hindus’ ideas and philosophies, the more they feel the need to prove them otherwise. The years of helplessness in listening to the BS dished out in the mainstream media and the slights on their intelligence by the people in power have resulted in making them overly aggressive in hitting back. This is what drives Internet Hindus to support Modi, because his victory means the victory for their idea.

PS – I still remember the distance of the some of the intellectual people with the rest of the nation. In college, in one of the campus presentations, a recent recruit was recounting his/her experience in a village orientation program. The person realized the importance of having power 24x7 and (believe me this is true) that people can leave without having access to Coffee days and Pizza Huts. I was extremely appalled at this person’s ignorance of the country. These are the same people who see 2 India’s while for most of us commoners there is only one.

How NREGA won UPA its Second Term

Now ever since UPA won the 2009 elections, A lot of political commentators have speculated on the possible reasons that would have persuaded the electorate to vote them back to power. Everything from Rahul’s new paradigm in politics to matured leadership of Manmohan Singh was perceived to be the main factor behind UPA’s re-election in 2009.But one of the major contributing factor for congress victory that most political observers agreed was NREGA scheme.

In this short post, I try to rationally analyze whether NREGA indeed help UPA in the pro-incumbency wave seen in the election. 2009 national elections was in-fact not a single issue based election and multiple issues interplayed at both regional and local level to effect the outcome of the election. Hence it is very difficult to single out an issue and extract the impact of that issue on the final voting preference of the electorate. Hence it would be very difficult to analyze the impact of NREGA scheme on 2009 elections at India level analytically. Therefore I have tried to take a sample state which ideally would be bereft of any local or regional issue during the 2009 elections.  

Starting from the 28 states in India, we can easily rule out the smaller states of Goa, North East, since electorally they are relatively insignificant. Ideally we would want a state which is a bipolar contest between BJP and Congress (the two national parties, since these would relatively have lesser prominence to local issues). Among the states where there is a straight contest between BJP and congress, Madhya Pradesh stands out. In 2008 assembly elections BJP had just won a 2^nd term to rule the state with near 2/3 majority 143 out of 230 seats.^[1] So BJP was expected to win a majority of the parliamentary seats in 2009.^[2] Most opinion and exit polls predicted a BJP sweep of around 20-25 seats out of the 29 seats in total. But surprisingly Congress managed to win 12 seats with BJP winning 16 seats and BSP the remaining seat.^[3] This was surprising and almost a matched performance by the Congress especially with the fact that the same party had got a thrashing in the assembly elections held just 6 months back.^[1] In the case of the other states where elections were held along with that of Madhya Pradesh in 2008, the results in 2009 parliamentary elections broadly followed the assembly elections results. In Delhi and Rajasthan Congress swept the states with 7/7 and 20/25 seats respectively and in Chhattisgarh BJP won resoundingly 10/11 seats in the state^[4]. Hence when all these states are considered, Madhya Pradesh clearly stands out.

So how was Congress able to win so many seats in Madhya Pradesh? In 2009 elections there were not many dominant local issues that dominated the discussion. Hence it is safe to assume that National issues with local bearings had major role to play. Now the question arises, which ones? Was it the matured leadership of the PM that enabled to the voters to trust Congress or was it Rahul’s magic?.

So when we deep dive into the 2009 results, we can clearly see a pattern that when taken in context explains the underlying factor behind congress better than expected performance.  I was able to procure assembly level voting shares for each of the party in 2009 elections from the election commissioner website. ^[5] I correlated this with the no of blocks in each of the assembly segments designated as Rural or urban by the election commission. By broadly using the share of polling booths classified as Rural vs. Urban and with an assumption that each of the polling booth would cater to nearly equal number of voting population. I was able to approximate the share of Rural and Urban electoral population in each of the assembly segment. Refer the link below for reference.

When the assembly seat population characteristics are correlated with the voting pattern in 2009 elections, a clear trend emerges. Rural segments have voted fairly evenly between Congress and BJP while the urban segments have in majority of the cases voted decisively for the BJP.

The below table illustrates the voting pattern that emerges

Rural Share	INC	BJP	Total Votes cast	Weights	No of assembly segments	BJP	INC	BSP
95-100%	40.1%	39.7%	5551853	29%	63	27	32	4
90-95%	40.4%	41.9%	4303994	22%	52	27	23	2
80-90%	39.8%	43.9%	3891963	20%	47	25	21	1
70-80%	36.8%	46.4%	1624213	8%	20	11	9	0
50-70%	42.7%	47.8%	1378412	7%	16	9	7	0
25-50%	43.3%	43.6%	924128	5%	11	8	3	0
0-25%	40.1%	51.9%	1796309	9%	21	16	5	0
Total	40.2%	43.5%	19470872	100%	230	123	100	7

As we can see from the above table, Congress has in fact performed better than BJP in predominantly rural seats (95-100% share of rural polling booths) with a total vote share of 40.1% against 39.7% of the BJP. In terms of assembly segments, Congress had leads in 32 out of a total of 63 seats with predominance of rural population as against 27 for the BJP. As we go further into urbanized assembly segments we find BJP’s vote share difference vis a vis Congress improving and eventually dominating. At a broad level the Voting share of Congress and BJP in seats with more than 70% rural population stands at ~40% and ~42% respectively. At an assembly seat level this translates into 85 and 90 seats in which the respective parties had leads out of 182 seats in this category. In seats with significant urban population (30-50% of Urban polling booth share), we can clearly see BJP having a significant advantage with ~48% vote share as against ~43% of the Congress. In terms of assembly segments BJP lead in 16 seats as against 9 seats by the Congress out of a total of 25 seats. And finally in Urban majority seats, BJP is the clear winner with whopping 8% lead in vote share with ~49% as against voter share of ~41% for the congress. BJP had leads in 24 of the 32 assembly segments vis a vis 8 for the congress.

Clearly the major reason for the better than expected of the Congress is due to its on par performance in the rural segments of the Madhya Pradesh state. It is here that NREGA comes into picture. NREGA has been reported to have been successfully implemented in Madhya Pradesh. NREGA is rural focused scheme and benefits only the rural population by guaranteeing 100 days of work for eligible adults. The successful implementation would have resulted in the creation of enormous goodwill among its beneficiaries which could have resulted in proportionate impact on the voting trends of the beneficiaries in 2009 elections. We can clearly state that NREGA indeed had a positive impact on the electoral prospect of the UPA government. The on par performance of UPA in rural segments can only be attributed to the NREGA scheme and nothing else, since there existed no anti incumbency against the state government; there were no regional parties and also no significant regional issues that were course of the discussion. And significantly Congress performed equally well across the state with wins coming from both East, West, South and Northern parts of Madhya Pradesh and hence negating the possibility of local cluster level issues or performance linked to pockets of influence of leaders. With the elimination of most of the issues that could have had a broad level impact across the state, clearly NREGA is the only factor left and hence NREGA is the winning factor by elimination.

What will be the implication of this analysis on 2013/14 elections. Rural voters are still significant even if there is a growing clout of urban neo middle class. So even though after the recent protests in Delhi, everyone seems to talking about these new segments, the rural population cannot be ignored. Therefore the politics of handouts and giveaways will still compete in the near future. Also significantly Congress and the UPA have an edge over this segment which always has been the traditional vote constituency of the congress. Even though the electoral impact of the Direct cash scheme is questionable as I have argued in the previous post. Still, the many other schemes of the present regime will create favorable dispensation. But there is also the drought that has affected India in 2012 coupled with stagnation in the Market prices for farmers and the growing input costs of labor and other farm inputs could create adverse opinion. And finally for the BJP and especially Narendra Modi, they have to come up with a credible idea that would entice this voting segment. Development and Industrialization cannot be easily sold to this segment unlike the technology savvy neo middle class. Also for Modi especially communicating his vision to this segment will be the most challenging prospect if he were to promote himself as the PM candidate from the BJP. The way the vision is articulated and communicated is crucial. But the growing reach of Television and Mobile phone connectivity with nearly 25-35% (33.4% at all India level) of the rural population across the states with access to TV and 50-60% (55% at all India level) with access to Telephone network can be the critical enablers for the above communication.

Therefore the analysis clearly indicates the importance of this important electoral segment which no party or PM candidate can ignore or take it for granted and the key to winning 2014 would crucially lie with the party or candidate who can gain significant share of this huge electoral pie. But the crucial challenge will remain in connecting and communicating one’s vision to this key segment.

PS -
For the detailed Data and analysis
Please refer to
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvxmEFR9ZNZKdEdSUDZvNzIwTWlDYXRtZTdPci04anc#gid=1