Why we should Vote??

In the present context, we see doom and gloom everywhere around us. A sense of pessimism pervades through the entire nation. From “we are the next superpower” mindset we have now entered into a state of helplessness and weakness. No wonder everyone seems to make a joke of us. From a country that regularly elects clowns, to a tiny country that is expected to entirely submerge in due course of time with global warming, no one takes us seriously enough. Pakistan regularly humiliates us and the entire experience with Pakistan reminds me of Elmer Fudd’s attempts in catching Bugs Bunny (No rewards for guessing who is what here). But we continue to prod on, always thinking that it could have been worse.

Anyways why the hell should we worry about how India is treated by other nations? As long as we are happy and content in our lives, we really don’t give a damn about such things. Only a few lunatic nationalists cry hoarse over such incidents, after all we are all more worried about our next trip to Europe and what if deterioration of relations results in us not getting tourist visas (Apparently, 9L tourists visited Europe from India last year)

Coming to domestic front, the economy seems to huffing and puffing and chugging along at a meagerly Nehru growth rate of 5%. A key indicator of future growth prospects, capital goods output continues to fall. Some reports even suggest that we may have to face sluggish growth rate till the end of the decade.  Infrastructure formation is crawling at speed faster than ludicrous speed. As this report clearly indicates UPA government’s mismanagement is the key factor for the slowdown in infrastructure formation. Our current account deficit is hovering at a dangerous level of 5.3% as compared to a surplus of 1-2% in the early 2000s. Given that most of this deficit is being financed by highly liquid FII inflows which have a high tendency to bolt off with just a whiff of worsening in the situation. The country is at a perilous stage. Imagine the plight of the country if due to global shock, FII’s were to leave in droves, India will face a Balance of payments crisis of unprecedented nature. To add to all of these, we have numerous corruption scams that seem to prop everyday whose reach and scale can beat any of the recent internet sensations. All these should worry any common citizen (I mean highly educated middle and upper class commoners), right??.We could expect angry citizens (??) to vent their fury come Election Day. We can expect historic results from the next elections just like in those European nations that we so desperately aspire to be. Right??

But hey, how do these things concern us. GDP growth, infrastructure, current account deficits, all these are things that never really matters in our lives. Let the politicians and economists figure out what to do. Talking about roads, we really don’t care, since we mostly travel by air and if we do travel, we use our SUVs. In fact these roads are awesome to try out the off-roading capabilities of our new cars. Our apartments have UPSs and generators, so we never bother whether there is power or not. Mineral water is easily available, so why worry about water supply. We thrive irrespective of any infrastructure formations.  Corruption, well... it has always been there, besides giving some money for getting work done quicker isn’t so bad. So why should we go and vote on Election Day and ruin a good holiday. When things are going so fine for us, why waste our time standing in long queues with other commoners. Anyways our votes really don’t matter. We never seem to get the kind of people we like to be elected; in fact they seem not to even bother standing. The rest of the people who stand are anyways uneducated slum dwellers who cannot even speak one sentence in English. So seriously who really cares about voting. Politics is so lame and such a waste of time. We have our beautiful lives to look after, why should destroy our carefully built world by thinking/ involving ourselves in the matters that are so repulsive.

This is where most of us are wrong. All of the above things matter to us and at more fundamental level that we never think. Infrastructures, growth, GDP, current account deficits, corruption, etc all influence one elementary factor that affects most of our lives. This factor is nothing but our jobs, our careers and its growth. Unless we are public sector employees, rest of us are clearly dependent on our jobs, bonuses for all the luxuries that we afford in our lives. And all the above factors can really upset the delicate balance that we have carefully built in our lives. Why??

Because when the economy does badly, most companies also do. When your company does badly, it affects your career.  Your bonuses have shrunken in the last couple of years faster than matter and time at the edge of a black hole. Promotions have become scarcer than Sir Ravindra Jadeja’s centuries. All those neat little calculations on paying your EMI’s for your cars, apartments and other things have gone for a toss.  Even the carefully built protective bubble around your life has been penetrated by the obnoxious external doom and gloom. For it is the simple rule of mathematics, that when the whole is divided, so are the constituents of the whole. The weights might be different but division will occur irrespective of your efforts to preserve status quo.

Hence it is my humble request to all my friends to stop being cynical and pessimistic and start thinking positively on how to bring about change. To stop living in carefully constructed “dream” lives and start interacting and responding to the external environment.  To stop believing in the non sense of two different worlds of “India” and “Bharat” and start understanding that, we all are leaving in the same country. And finally to stop treating every Election Day as an holiday and start thinking seriously about voting the right candidates. Right candidates doesn’t mean candidates who act and speak like you and who have similar qualifications but candidates who speak the right thing irrespective of his background or party. For every vote is crucial, and it is not crucial because it will change the destiny of the nation, or dramatically improve our fortunes, makes us a superpower, eradicate poverty, stop crimes and corruptions completely but for the simple fact that you’re entirely constructed structured lives depend on it. For without our jobs, bonuses and promotions, we cannot have our beautiful apartments, sporty cars and holidays to exotic locations.

So please register yourself and cast your vote in the next election (to any candidate!!!)

Is Central government ignoring Global Headwinds

Anyone keenly following global news would be aware of the dire states of the global economy. The eurozone is most likely be falling into double deep recession, the economic recovery of US post 2009 crisis has been tepid and fiscal cliff looms large on it, coupled to this are the worrying signs emanating from China, with falling GDP growth rates, stagnating industrial production and piling inventories the fear is of hard landing of Chinese economy. To add to all these economic woes is the ongoing crisis over Iran's nuclear program and a middle eastern war over the same.

Is India prepared to handle the worst, Are there contingency plans in place to protect ourselves from such global headwinds, Does the central government even care about whats happening around the globe. The answer to all of this seems to be a big NO

We have all heard the Prime Minister, Finance Minister and other government and ruling party spokesperson repeatedly blaming the ongoing euro crisis for all the ills that the Indian economy is suffering from double digit inflation to falling GDP growth rates. But do they really care about the ongoing global crisis?

Now of course the real reason for the economic mess the country is facing can be clearly be blamed for the mismanagement and in aptitude of the central government. Without going into detail of the various farcical decisions taken by the government it is clear that central government has led the Indian economy to this moribund state. But what is not clear is what will happen when the global headwinds start affecting us. Are we prepared?

In 2009, when the financial crisis hit upon us, our economic state was on a sound footing. The Current Account balance was at an modest -0.7% in 2007 (Source: World Bank), the GDP growth rate was at a formidable 9.8% (Source: World Bank) nearing double digit growth and Total reserves as percentage of Total external debt was at a comfortable 136% (Source: World Bank). But what is the position of economy now, GDP growth rates is tethering at 5-5.5% (Analyst Forecasts), Current Account deficit is at relatively high -5.21% (Source: World Bank) and our reserves can barely cover our total external debt with reserves to debt ration of 104% (Source: World Bank).

Now we might say the recent measures taken by the government are meant to address these issues, but are they. The so called cap on LPG subsidy has already been relaxed in several of the congress ruled states. FDI in Retailing bringing in significant investment that could tide our finances is ridiculous at the least. To top it, there are rumours that the centre is mooting to bring in food security bill with cost to exchequer of INR 1.19 Crores (India Today). The government on the whole is not at all serious about the tackling Fiscal deficit looming at large especially w.r.t rationalization of subsidy. We can clearly see that subsidy give aways to the voters is the main culprit for the present financial mess, the subsidy expense as share of total expense stands 59.75% today compared to 44.98% in 2004 during the NDA regime(Source: World Bank). And the ruling government is no mood to reverse or stop this short sighted quixotic schemes, on the other it is coming up with ingenious way to give away even more of the hard earned tax revenues to buy up votes with schemes to give free mobile phones and the likes of it.

 All this boils down to what will happen if the present global crisis worsens and there is a lehman like moment. The probability of such an event is likely and with Citibank citing possibility of Grexit at 20%. Rising tensions in austerity hit Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy coupled with creditor fatigue in Northern countries can create a eurozone breakup. Add to this the stagnation of American economy and Chinese hard landing and the once in a decade leadership change. The world today is filled with uncertainty. IMF and World bank have all cut their global output forecasts. The majoritarian view is that worse is yet to come. But Our central government is oblivious to all of these and is happily pondering on how to crown the crown prince.

This is truly sad state of affairs and one can only hope that people of this Nation  whenever the next elections happen elect the kind of person who can take tough decisions, who has the organizational and managerial capabilities to lead the Nation and offer a clear vision of How India has to leap ahead.