Political irrelevance of Mainstream English Media

Is the English media relevant to Indian politics? Is it possible for a politician to succeed without the blessings and the support of this so called “powerful channel”. Is it true that English Mainstream media set the agenda for discussion in the Nation’s power circles? Is their endorsement a necessary requirement for political parties and leaders to reach out to the people?  Enough has been said and written about the partisanship of the mainstream English media in India Now for a potential PM candidate, how he/she can reach out to the greater Indian audience given the hostility towards the challenger and open support to the incumbent government by mainstream media.

But in terms of reach, English news channel is miniscule. According the TAM data, English news channels accounted for a negligible 0.4% of the National viewership. Then why are English news channel given so much prominence. The reasons are twofold, one it caters to the elite of the society. The political class at the centre, the bureaucratic class and Management class of the Indian firms are all viewers of English media and hence it caters to the audiences who have significant influence on future direction of the nation. Secondly, it is the trend setter for national and international news. Although regional news channel dominate the news spectrum, they generally lack national content. These channels focus on in depth analysis of regional news while expending little resources on national issues. Hence these channels focus narrowly on the top news segments that are trending in the English news media in their national news sections and segments. These two reasons enable the English media to assume a role greater than their actual capabilities and also have created the perception of their importance in setting the national agenda.

Now as I have written in the beginning, can someone succeed nationally without the help and support of English media? Can English media’s censure means political dead-end for parties and leaders who are considered by the English media as pariah. The answer to the above questions is a definite NO. English media can be easily sidestepped and bypassed to reach out to people and set the national agenda.

First of all, let me explain the importance of Television as a medium. According to recent TAM data, Out of 231 Mn households in India, 148 Mn (64%) households own a television out of which, 126 Mn (55%) have access to Cable or satellite connection. The penetration of Television in Urban India is even more significant, 69 Mn households have access to 78 Mn households in Urban India, amounting to 88% of the total household population with a further 63 Mn (81%) access to Cable or Satellite connection. Thus Television is increasingly playing a greater role in the life of ordinary Indian with an average Indian spending 1&1/2 hour each day watching Television. Hence Television is increasingly becoming a media with the widest reach and thus greater potential to influence and drive the thoughts and agenda of the common man. Therefore this perceived “monopoly” and hold by English media network needs to be countered to evolve the political discourse in India to a more mature and sensible discussion where all opinions and viewpoints are allowed to be aired without bias.

The approach to be followed is two pronged pincer strategy which involves the utilization of the social media and the increasing penetration and prominence of regional news media outlets (includes Hindi news channels and state specific channels). Starting with the regional news media outlets, in the past few years, a lot of regional news outlets have spawned catering to various political ideologies. According to TAM Data India has one of the highest numbers of news channels in the world with almost 150 channels in the genre. TAM data suggests the viewership share of regional news channels has grown by 15-20 per cent. Hindi and regional news channels account for 7.1% of the total viewership as compared to 0.4% of the English news channels.  Therefore regional news channel possess greater reach and also more relevant content which will enable them to wield potentially greater influence on their audience. This fact has been evident by the various anecdotal evidences that I have witnessed, where people are seen eagerly discussing such hypothetical events such as the end of the world, aliens and so on and so forth.

Hence it is necessary for parties to reach out to these regional news channels in order to present their viewpoints to large swathes of the common public. Here a potential PM candidate can establish himself in a manner; no English media outlet could do even if it campaigned for him/her 24x7. Simple gestures like being offered to be interviewed on the regional news channel are enough to create the buzz and the hype necessary to create the interest in the candidate. The news channel might not be politically inclined towards the candidate or the party, but any regional news channel will be willing to offer the candidate a fair chance of interview unlike the national English channels for the fear of losing the golden opportunity of interviewing national political leader to an opposing channel. Hence the pure drive for TRPs would allow the issue of political bias and driven agenda’s to be sidestepped. Secondly appearing on regional news network would enhance the credibility of the said candidate, since he/she would appear to be accessible and the local anchor will be able to raise the relevant local concerns in such a hypothetical interview, thus giving the candidate the opportunity to offer solutions to issues that are most relevant to the audience. Thirdly even if the regional news network is of opposing political ideology, it would still debate and discuss on the policies, success and shortcomings of the candidate. This would help in creating a healthy discussion among the public which would be beneficial for the candidate since it would bring into the fore his/her capabilities and weakness to the public. The candidate can wisely exploit the opportunity in his favor by playing on his strengths and admitting his weakness and promising to work on it. Though at the end how far he/she will be able to convince the public is different matter all together, the option of getting an opportunity to be presented is a far better one than where the candidate is entirely side stepped and undemocratically decided by the elite to be unfit before even the public even got an opportunity to think about him/her.

Coming to the second prong of the pincer strategy, social media has in the past few years made English media almost irrelevant in terms of reaching out to audiences. This can be seen in the global decline in the advertising spending on Television and the rapid growth of online ad spending by marketing agencies. India ranks 3^rd in terms of number of Facebook users in the world, with an estimated 61 Mn Facebook users accounting for 5.24% of the India’s population.  India also ranks 6^th in terms of twitter users with 1.08 Mn users accounting for 0.1% of India’s population. These statistics when compared with the reach that the English media in India possess (0.4% of the population), highlights the ease with which they can be by-passed, hence at the same time explaining the paranoia and the subtle attempts by the mainstream media to restrict and muzzle social media.  Facebook alone has a reach 12 times more than that of the English media, let alone other social media outlets, like twitter, blogging sites, etc.

Thus here lies the salvation for the current monopolies exercised by the media outlets. Political parties and leaders can easily utilize the growing reach of social media. Social media also demographically consists of significant population of the youth, who are critical for the establishment of long term relationships. Hence it is critical for political parties/candidates to establish significant presence in social media. There is also the growing credibility with regards to the content available in online forums, since any fictional posting is immediately repudiated by other members and also the speed with which information is being decimated makes them highly attractive for gaining information. All these factors would imply that social media in the near future would become a really powerful platform for shaping the course of national discussions and agenda, taking over this role from the elitist English media who currently exercise monopolistic power with regards to the same. Also in terms of the audience that caters to English media is similar in profile to the one that utilizes social media, in other words social media can easily replicated the platform offered by national English media. A potential candidate can easily leverage this to establish himself and create a brand with respect to him/her-self; the same logic would also apply for political formulations. Secondly social media is unregulated and hence can easily help in promotion of an unbiased profile of the candidate/party and viewers are presented with wide ranging choice of opinions, facts and analysis ranging from highly supportive arguments to highly negative ones. This encourages discussions and further churning about the topic bringing wider awareness about the policies, issues and context of the candidate and the party. This democratic form of publicizing also creates greater trust among the audience. Thus once again the candidate/party has (given that they are indeed apt and suitable for the responsibility that they are aspiring for) got a fair and unbiased chance of presenting themselves to public, which is anytime far better than complete vilification and admonition of them by Mainstream media.

Hence this two pronged strategy of reaching out to vast public through regional news network and social media can make the necessity of having favorable standing with the main stream media highly irrelevant one. Therefore the English media, who are highly biased and partisan in their coverage, can be easily be worked over by candidates/parties that are at the receiving end of such propaganda. A masterful use of these two alternate media coupled with an focused and targeted execution of presenting their views can not only counter the venomous propaganda driven against them but can also become a vital tool in ensuring their victory. These two media will increasingly shape the nature of the discussion in the nation and the way agenda’s are set.  Thus the future holds the capability to completely sidestep the mainstream media, which could force an introspection in them resulting in it becoming a more open and democratic platform. This would be ideal for the democratic process as a whole.

Electoral Impact of Cash Transfer scheme??

Much hype has been recently created around the apparent "game changer" scheme that UPA II is preparing to introduce. It is the Direct cash Transfer scheme, i.e., replacing fuel, food, fertilizers and other subsidies and directly depositing cash in the beneficiaries’ bank account. Now the scheme is being touted as a game changer, one which will be instrumental in the formation of UPA III. Cash in the bank accounts of potential voters, it is said, will create a lot of goodwill among the common man and this will result in them voting in droves for the present ruling dispensation and returning them back to power.

I would like clearly state that I am not against the Direct Cash Transfer scheme or do I argue against the potential benefits from the proper implementation of the scheme. In fact, it is my belief that the scheme is in the right direction of eliminating the leakage and inefficiencies present in the existing subsidy disbursement scheme.

My doubt is with regard to the electoral benefits the implementation of this scheme is supposed to bring. The present wisdom regarding the electoral benefits from the scheme goes like this. The scheme is supposed to result in deposit of Rs. 3200 every month for over 10 Crore poor families in India. If each of these families have 2 eligible voters, that amounts to over 20 crore grateful voters. Even if half of these actually vote for Congress, that would be more than suffice for UPA to come back to power, as in 2009 Congress bagged 206 seats with less than 12 crore votes. This is how the logic goes regarding UPA’s reelection chances.

I will presently, debunk this analysis. The crucial issue is of a simple financial one i.e. Working Capital management. First let me assume that UPA pays Rs. 3200 every month to each family, now currently the scheme envisages the beneficiaries buying food, fuel, fertilizers and other necessary items at market price and the government later depositing the difference between the subsidized price and MRP in the beneficiaries’ bank account. Thus the scheme assumes that these poor families will in fact be able to finance the additional cost initially and also bear the financing cost till the government reimburses them. Here in lies the catch; most of the families that are identified to be poor live on less than Rs. 27 per day or Rs. 3240 per family per month. Therefore assuming each family is eligible for Rs. 3200 per month as subsidy transferred to them. Each family needs to cough up a month’s salary upfront and wait for the government to refund the same at the end of the month. This is assuming that government sticks up to its commitment of clearing all the dues by the end of each month.

The problem is that the vast majority of the poor primarily depend on their daily earnings for their day to day living. Most of the time, they find it hard to meet the day’s ends meet, if they are not able to find work for the day. Hence it is unlikely they will be able to find the resources to buy goods at MRP and wait for a month for the government to refund the same. The more likely scenario will be that they will cut down on consumption and look for alternate sources. The pilot implementation of the scheme in Rajasthan speaks of drop in Kerosene sales by 70% because of persistent delays in the subsidy money reaching the villagers. One can only imagine when the scheme is implemented in its entirety, the confusions and the delays that will inevitably result. If pilot implementation of the scheme result in the delay of the order of several months, then the full scale implementation will definitely result in years of delay in the payment of the subsidy to the beneficiaries.

Secondly, the direct cash transfer scheme will only work for those with Aadhar cards, sadly, Aadhar cards have covered only 25 crore people, mostly in urban areas and Aadhar itself does not target more than 50% of the population by the end of 2014. This brings to the picture, how will the rest of the poor mostly living in the rural hinterlands benefit from the scheme. They will be forced to pay the market price since subsidized fuel and other items are supposed to be stopped once direct cash transfer scheme comes to vogue. The only alternative is for both the schemes to be implemented together which will give a lot of scope for corruption and embezzlement to take place. Hence this scheme in the initial days will create a lot of hardships to the very people it is supposed to help.

Thirdly, one must not forget the working capital requirements of the central government. Assuming Rs. 3200 per month for 10 crore families implies that the central government needs to fund Rs. 32,000 crore per month. The problem is that government receives most of its tax revenues at the end of the fiscal year while it needs to make payments every month. Currently, the government need not worry about providing subsidy since it can delay its payments to oil companies till the end of the year. Similarly it finances its working capital from merchants, contractors and other 3^rd party vendors who sell products or offer services to government by delaying the payments to them. While these people can bear the financing cost, poor people will not be able to do the same. Hence government needs to finance nearly 1.08 lakh Crores by some estimates upfront in order to ensure that beneficiaries get the subsidy due to them in time. This will surely impact the working capital requirements of the government, there are two options that are available to the government, one raise debt or bridge loans from the market to tide over the cash flow differentials or the most likely option of delaying the payments to the beneficiaries. Because one lakh crore rupees of additional debt accounting to 7.194% of the annual budget will play havoc with the governments Fiscal and Current account deficit.   

Thus my point is that, instead of creating grateful voters, it will create a lot of hardships and confusion among the intended beneficiaries. The government in its hurry to implement the scheme will not give adequate attention in order to fine tune and make the implementation of the scheme problem free. The impact on the poor who will be forced to cut down on their expenditure due to non availability of the resources to fund in the intermediate stage will result in widespread anger against the central government. Poor families would rather have a Kg of rice today than the money for the same a month later. This is the one important lesson the government needs to remember.

Finally, like any new project, it takes time for the success of the project to bear fruit and for the people to realize the same. NREGA was implemented in 2005 and UPA I had four whole years to get it right and create a favorable disposition among the beneficiaries of NREGA. Unfortunately, UPA II doesn’t have the luxury of time on their side, even if the implementation is forced to start in the mid of 2013, the time for benefits to kick in and for the families to realize the same will take 2/3 years by which 2014 elections would have taken place and hopefully a new government will be in place to reap the benefits of the scheme.

PS: I found this hilarious example of how Aadhar cards are already being misused.
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_coriander-s-o-pulao-aadhaar-no-499118665246_1707630
Courtesy of one of my friends