Recently I read an interesting book on geo-politics "Revenge
of Geography"[1][2] by Robert Kaplan. The
author explores the impact of Geography in shaping up of the history of the
civilized world and tries to draw what implications it will hold in the next
century.
The whole premise of the book is that the entire world can
be divided Afro-Eurasian Hinterland and an American Island. The geography of
the Afro-Eurasian Hinterland plays the decisive role in the development of
History of the various political entities in the Hinterland.
The author elaborates how the world
can divided into a Eurasian Heartland consisting of the wide stretch of land
from the borders of Central Europe in the west to Mongolian steppes and Pacific
Ocean in the East. And Rim-land regions surrounding the Heartland and blocking
its access to sea. In between the Rim-land and Heartland or between Rim-lands
lie shatter or conflict zones which because of geography are perennially
unstable and become the ground for invading armies to march over in their
attempts at domination. The author considers the American continents as
separate Islands with the Northern Island dominated by United States and
southern by Brazil and Argentina.
Accordingly, the major Rim-land
powers are Western Atlantic Europe, German dominated Central Europe, Turkish
Highland, Iranian plateau, Indian Sub-continent, Southern China. These Rim-land
powers are in constant flux/fight with the Heartland power of the Day.
As can be evidenced by History, from the Scythian Tribes
that harassed the Greeks, Persians and Indians, Huns who ravaged the Roman and
Gupta Empires, Central Asian Turks who brought Islam to Northern Africa and
Indian Sub-continent, Mongol armies to nearly conquer the Heartland to finally
Russian Empire and Soviet Union to Dominant the world. The history of the
Rim-land regions has been significantly impacted by the dominant power of the
Heartland.
The author presents historical
analysis of the continued struggle for dominance over the Eurasian heartland.
It then proceeds with the logical extrapolation on the events that can unfold
in the future. The presumptions are based on the analysis of a weaker Russia giving
up its hold on Heartland and a rising China taking over its place in the
Heartland. China will for the first time in history has the potential to become
the first dominant Rim-land power to extend and dominate the Heartland. And
Chinese domination with their access to warm seas which was ever denied to
Russians may help them to become the dominant world power.
The author also has devoted a chapter on the implications
of geography on Indian position in global geo-politics. The book delves into
the Indian sub-continent. The Author propagates that India is the “key
swing/pivot” state and the side we take can change the geo-political balance of
the coming world. The author argues in the book how Northern India was always
influenced by Central Asia and thus today has the potential to extend influence
in the region countering Chinese influence. Historically North India was
defined by its relations with Central Asia with Mauryan, Kushan and Moghul
Empire stretching across North India to Central Asia. According to the Author,
North Indian geographical contour extends up to Hind Kush Mountains and that
Hindu Kush is the true geographical border of the Indian sub-continent. Hence Pakistan
is an artificial geographic construct, a shatter zone just like Syria, Iraq or
Ukraine. The author foresees further instability in the region, given the
artificiality of boundaries of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hence it is
crucial for India to re-assert its influence in the region if it ever has to
become a serious global power. The
ability of India to assert power outside the sub-continent is thus dependent on
the success of India’s influence and dominance in Afghanistan and our ability
to project power in Central Asia.
Therefore the author argues that we need to prioritize our
geo-political focus towards the Afghanistan - Pakistan region to assert over
dominance of the same that we had during the times of Mauryan, Kushan and
Mughal Empires.
Though, I agree with the author’s analysis that India needs to extend influence in the broader Central Asian Heartland. The author ignores an important aspect of the Indian History. It is the rich maritime history of the sub-continent that is completely forgotten by Western scholars. Ancient India was one of the progressive Maritime civilizations in the world.
Indus valley Traders have known to trade with Sumerian and
Egyptian civilizations. Early accounts of Indian traders doing bulk shipping of
Timber, Copper, Ivory, Pearls and other items have been recorded. The world's first dock was established in Lothal in 2400 BCE [3].
This trading continued during the Early Indian Period. Indian traders continued trade with the Romans in the West and Pandyan emissaries were sent to court of Augustus Ceaser[4]. It dominated the trade with East until the rise of Arabs under Islam. Indian culture and Indic religions were exported to Indo-China, Malayan archipelago and even East Asia. Hindu and Buddhist religions passed on over to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines[5] and China.
This trading continued during the Early Indian Period. Indian traders continued trade with the Romans in the West and Pandyan emissaries were sent to court of Augustus Ceaser[4]. It dominated the trade with East until the rise of Arabs under Islam. Indian culture and Indic religions were exported to Indo-China, Malayan archipelago and even East Asia. Hindu and Buddhist religions passed on over to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines[5] and China.
This is an important aspect that today the author totally
misses out. The implications by the extrapolation of the geographical argument
put forth in the book. That India should re-focus on deeply integrating Trade
Ties with Indo-China and South East Asia and Africa's Eastern Sea board. This
fact is given more credence by the fact that unlike Central Asia, India has a
large diaspora in these countries from Kenya to Singapore. There already exists
sufficient Trade between these countries and none of them have antagonistic
feelings towards India.
Secondly, India is bound by China and Pakistan to reach Central
Asia. New Delhi might be closer to Dushanabe, capital of Tajikistan (1760 Kms)
than to Chennai (~2100 KMs). India today could have tapped into the vast
markets of Central Asia and in return sourced precious oil, natural gas and
minerals. But sadly loss of Pakistan Occupied Kashimir and Chinese occupation
of Tibet has bound us completely. Either India needs their cooperation and
support or India needs to take more circuitous route through Iran or Russia.
Hence even though geography dictates Indian influence in Central Asia, current
political realities prevent India from doing so.
However in the case of African East and South East Asia,
India doesn’t have any such boundaries. India is the preeminent sea power in
Indian Ocean though lately challenged by China. India can still set up road and
rail connectivity up to Singapore passing through Myanmar, Thailand and
Malaysia[6]. South East Asian
countries have like India favourable demographics, developed political
institutes and stability and our cultural affinity with large Indian diaspora.
These give India, a unique opportunity which needs to be leveraged to the
fullest.
The recent growth of Africa also
offers India the vital chance to penetrate these markets. Indian companies with
cost effective and frugal products have already captured significant share of
these markets with Auto-companies leading in the front[7]. Indian experience in
development of these products and their suitability of these in similar
environments in developing Africa gives it the required expertise to cater to
these markets. Also India’s appetite for resources can be met with Africa and
unlike Chinese companies; India is far less interfering and domineering. All
these make India the natural partners for African Development.
Therefore the book ignores the true potential for India
lying in the pivotal position in Indian Ocean acting as the key Trans-shipment
Trading point just as Singapore and Dubai are functioning for the Middle East
and South East Asia. India needs to develop good railway and road linkages with
Eastern and Western coasts along with Industrial corridor that can not only
help in Trans-shipment but can process valuable resources from Africa in the
Deccan Hinterland and service South East Asian Markets. Therefore developing an
East West Industrial Corridors can create the required network allowing
Industries to set up along the length helping connect Africa and the East.
Therefore Developing Hinterland and providing good connectivity to ports can
help India not only develop these areas but help in it becoming the global
super power that it historical was.
Therefore Geography dictates that India should look South and use it's long coastline to
become the dominant Rim-land nation and global super-power.
[1] http://www.flipkart.com/revenge-geography-english/p/itmdzj9afwan82zn?q=The+Revenge+of+Geography+%28English%29&as=on&as-show=on&otracker=start&as-pos=p_1&pid=9780812982220
[2] (by
Robert Kaplan, Random House Publishing Group, 414 Pages, ISBN: 9780812982220, Price
Rs.499)
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_maritime_history
[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Roman_trade_and_relations
[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Butuan
[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Asian_Railway
[7] http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/bajaj-auto-sixth-among-top-10-motorbike-sellers-in-africa-113102000494_1.html
