2014 Elections: Blitzkrieg Vs Maginot Line

The funny thing about history is that what is unexpected in past is obvious in the future. A fine example for this is nomination of Narendra Modi as PM candidate from the BJP. If one were to go six months back, one would see a torrent of articles and op-eds on why Narendra Modi would never be declared as BJPs PM candidate. But today, if one were to look at it dispassionately then it seems the anointment was long overdue and it was just a matter of timing.

Now coming to the point, recently when I was going through the archives the economist magazine out of curiosity, I came across an interesting insight which I would like to share. The so called opponents of Modi (including congressmen, pseudo-secularists, bankrupt intellectuals and plain retarded people) keep throwing in words like Hitler, Genocide, Holocaust,  Goebbels and other Third Reich names whenever one mentions about Modi. But as one might be aware, their knowledge on anything let alone history of 20^th century world is nonexistent.

Hence I would like to share with them the interesting story in WWII of Fall of France in 1940. Without going over in too much into background, WWII started after Germany invaded Poland forcing Britain and France to declare war on Germany. Britain and France combined were much stronger than Germany. Britain had an army of 16,50,000 and the French even bigger with 50,00,000 men under service. This coupled with other allied nations of Belgium and Netherlands (10,50,000) brought the total size of Allied Armed forces to 87,00,000. Germany on the other hand just had 42,00,000 men under service. Similarly the allies had more tanks (3383) when compared to Germany (2445) and the allied tanks were superior to the ones the Germans had. 

 

As the table below illustrates, the Allies had numerical superiority in all the aspects of warfare.

	Allies	Germany
Armed Forces Strength	8.7  Million	4.2 Million
Tanks	3,383	2,445
Artillery Guns	13,974	7,378
Aircraft	2,935	5,638

In addition to this, France had built a fortified wall between them and Germany called the “Maginot Line”. This was supposed to impenetrable and was fortress with provisions for millions of men, hundreds of artillery guns, etc.

Now naturally, the so called “experts” before the war expected the allies to win. They would cite that military arithmetic favors the Allies. Germany was foolish to declare war on the Allies. How could anyone break through the impressive and impenetrable Maginot Line. Where would Germany get the numbers to defeat France. Everyone was of the opinion that the Allies would defeat Germany and end the war.

But the result was a shocker. The smaller and less equipped German army not only defeated the Allied armies but managed to conquer France in just 6 weeks. It took them even less time to conquer Belgium and Netherlands. This came as a surprise to everyone.

The man behind this brilliant success was HienzGuderian, one of the commanders of the German army and the man credited with the development of “Blitzkrieg” or Lightening war. His favorite catchphrase was “Nicht Kleckern Klotzen” which translated to “Don’t tickle but smash”.

Now one might wonder what all this history has to do with the present, specifically 2014 elections. It does, for today the congress party reflects what France was before 1940. Their approach to elections is similar, defensive, un coordinated, attacks in fits and spasms. Congress today might enjoy the numerical superiority in money, media support, etc but is bumbling its way to the battle. The Food security bill and Direct Cash Transfer are the Congress’s new Maginot Line. Just like France expected Maginot line to win its battles, Congress foolishly believes these so called “Game changer” bills will win its elections. Just like in France in 1940, Congress’s commanders are men who cannot command and its second line of leadership is busy fighting sectional wars within itself. The congress rank and file are today as dispirited as French soldiers in 1940 or even worse. They are poorly trained, lack motivation and above all are confused in the conflicting directions that come from above. And finally similar to that in 1940 France, Congress command is on the firm belief that it will defeat Modi using the same old tried and tested methods, because it enjoys superiority in the media while all the while the reality on the ground is different.

On the other hand Guderian’s approach to battle was based on the tenets of Blitzkreig. It was based on the concept of combined arms, where you co-ordinate everything including your armor (tanks), infantry, artillery and air force into one concentrated attack to break through enemy’s defenses. This is achieved by only by a disciplined and motivated army. Secondly Germany made up for its numerical disadvantage by embracing technology, it developed dive bomber giving tactical advantage, had radios in each tank which brought on the field co-ordination to a whole new level.

Something similar can be witnessed today, in BJP’s game plan for 2014. BJP under its “Guderian” Modi is embracing this concept. Just as Guderian made up for lack of artillery by use of dive bombers, Modi has made up for the lack of Main stream media support by embracing the new social media. This is the key to success, the utilization of the new weapons at your disposal in innovative ways to achieve traditional targets. Modi just like Guderian understands the need to exploit new tools to transform the battleground. And just like in 1940, the campaign will be fought on one unified message where different aspects of a motivated organization will work in coordination to achieve this one goal something similar to combined arms tactics of WWII.

It is humorous, when you see the parallels between the so called expert analyses now and then. Air force and radio in tanks were not thought to make a big impact in the war. How can a few thousands aero planes defeat a million strong army. Just as in today, the so called experts deride on how social media even can impact electoral fortunes. But they forget to connect the dots, for just like in WW2, it was the combination of dive bombers with the infantry and the tanks that won the day. Similarly it will be the coordinated attack by social media platform in combination with the various on the ground campaigns. NamoBrigade is fruition of such an effort.

This is the whole point of concepts that are revolutionary, for they are revolutionary because no one could have anticipated or expected their impact. 2014 elections will thus be the new battle where Blitzkrieg will be redefined. Where the old electoral strategies will be discarded and new innovative ones will be devised. It will be where the book on fighting Indian elections in the 21st Century will be written.

PS – It is my firm belief that post 2014 elections, one will see a torrent of articles from the so called experts analyzing the results and concluding how it seemed to make sense and how it was obvious from the start.